Tuesday, 22 December 2009

Inexpert Experts

If there is one central, uniting fact about this recession it is that the so called experts, the economists, analysts and various commentators have been almost completely wrong about it from start to finish. In fact more than that. Most said it wasn't going to happen at all, that we would have a slowdown but not a recession. So they have been wrong from before the start to the finish.

And now they are wrong about the finish. And here I must admit that I too have been wrong, although I don't claim to be an expert. I thought things were getting better months ago. They were up to a point but nothing like enough.

Latest figures, confounding the experts once again, have confirmed that Britain, alone amongst major economies, remained in recession in the 3rd quarter. Impossible said the experts when the provisional figures were released. They'll be revised they told us. They were wrong. Again.

And keep this in mind when they tell us that there is no danger of inflation. Keep this in mind when the government tries to take credit for us coming out of recession. Keep this in mind when we are told that cutting spending now would endanger the recovery. Keep this in mind when they prescribe quantitative easing and dismiss criticisms that it makes no difference, creates inflationary pressures and is an easy way for the government to keep the spending taps open.

Even the so called experts say that 2010 is going to be a rough ride. Considering that they seem to be a bunch of inveterate optimists whose forecasts are made through rose tinted spectacles we should probably be very afraid.

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