Sunday, 13 December 2009

Is It March?

Two polls out today, one showing a 9 point Tory lead (YouGov in The Sunday Times) and the other showing a 17 point one (ComRes in the Independent on Sunday). I would say (not sitting on the fence you understand) that the truth is somewhere in between.

The Tories do seem to have come off quite well out of the PBR this week, although some of the populist announcements have been predictably popular. Is it feeding through to an overall better picture for the government? I can't really see it yet.

Still, this will encourage talk of an early election. I'm coming around to that view myself. If it were anyone else but Brown making the decision I would call it odds on. But the ditherer in Number 10 will pore over the figures and hesitate and hesitate and be unable to make up his mind thus boxing himself into May or June. May remains the most likely as surely even he can see that going all the way to June would make him look ridiculous and desperate. But you never know.

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