Tuesday, 29 December 2009

Weather Report

I am happy to accept for the most part the predictions of our often confused Met Office when it comes to the weather of the next day or two. As often as not, given all of their satellites, weather balloons and super computers, they get such forecasting right.

This of course is not the case with their more long range forecasts. Barbecue summer? Mild winter? No.

Now the Met Office always protests at this juncture that such forecasts are not set in stone, that they are just a statement of probabilities. Well even on that basis I think I could probably beat their recent success rate. Winter? It will be mild or bloody cold. Summer? Either hot and glorious, if a little too much for some, or grey, wet and miserable as better suits our national temperament. That's 50/50 isn't it? So why do they keep getting it wrong?

I'll tell you why. You knew that I would. They keep making these daft predictions so that one day, if they actually manage to get it right, they will be able to say aha, we told you so. Now, let's look at our long term predictions about climate change. Except of course we won't. Nice guess we will reply. Now, what's going to win the 3 O Clock at Epsom?

And whisper it quietly but we seem to be having another cold and rather nasty winter, not just here but across Europe and across the pond too where the snow has been heavy, the temperatures frigid and chaos has reigned. And it's still only December. Furthermore, this is the third winter in succession that we have been shivering rather than basking in balmy mild weather. Weather is not climate as we often point out. But three years in succession starts to look like a pattern I would suggest, in my no doubt unscientific way.

And one further observation, again unscientific. The sun has now been remarkably quiet for some time. Cold weather? Quiet sun? I'll let you figure it out for yourselves. No supercomputer required.

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