The Veto Vetoed

Back in December, when Cameron vetoed a new EU Treaty, Forrest adopted his best serious face and voice and told us that the PM was isolating us in Europe. He actually gave a fairly decent performance in the Commons, so long as you didn't pay too much attention to what he was actually saying and his constantly pivoting position.

Fast forward to today and Dave has, perhaps inevitably, bowed to pressure and gone along with EU demands to let the Euro countries use EU institutions. He has done so without getting the protections for the City that he wanted. But he has also done so making the calculation that this is by no means a done deal and that it will almost certainly unravel as various governments backtrack when they get home and realise what they have done and inconvenient democracy, which tends to at least slow down the juggernaut that is EU integration, intervenes. Ireland's annoying (if you are a Eurocrat) insistence on holding referendums is a possible impediment and there is a most inconvenient roadblock looming in the form of a French presidential election. If that goes the way we are all assuming it will then all bets are off. The French are so much better at saying Non than the British. After all they think the EU is theirs to do with as they like. Dave has taken a gamble but the odds are favourable he will win his bet.

None of this will stop Forrest and Labour coming out today, fresh from forcing the hand of Stephen Hester and reneging on their own contract as only politicians can do, and accusing Dave of selling out Britain. It's opportunist politics at its most egregious. Are they about to become Eurosceptic? Will they try to prevent Britain from giving more to the IMF? Are we no longer trying to be at the centre of Europe? What about the influence they accused Cameron of abandoning a few weeks ago?

Cameron's position is defensible on the grounds that the Euro countries need to sort themselves out for fear of the catclysm that could otherwise result for us all. It is debatable whether this deal will achieve that and, given the way we know these things work, it is most likely that it won't. But Cameron and Hague have probably concluded that they cannot be seen to be standing in the way of that because of the dangers to our own economy. They are reapportioning blame. The chances are, as I said at the beginning of the year, that the Euro will muddle through its current difficulties but will also prevent any growth in the economies that are currently struggling and create the need for the fiscal transfers Germany is so steadfastly against. The danger of a disorganised crash of the whole project has diminished but remains there in the background.

I'm not pretending for a moment that this was an easy decision for Cameron. But ultimately it will be seen as a missed opportunity. Britain needs to detach itself from this slow motion car crash. We can at least content ourselves that we are now semi-detached. But we also know how the EU works. It extracts concessions incrementally and this is part of that pattern. In December, Dave looked as though he was standing up to them in a way that even Margaret Thatcher never dared to. Now he has rejoined the club again to stop them being so beastly to him. We will all live to regret that sooner or later.

PS

Looking on the bright side, at least this time Nick Clegg felt able to sit alongside his good friend Dave to see him deliver the good news about Europe.