Friday, 28 October 2016

Trump the Loser

It's all gone a bit quiet on the US Presidential front hasn't it. Since the last debate the campaigns have been as busy as ever, Trump has even given one or two interviews to news organisations that are not sympathetic or fawning. But the polls tell the story: sanity is prevailing and this disastrous candidate is getting his richly deserved comeuppance.

Not that this is how he will portray it of course. No matter how the result goes - and we are all pencilling in a Clinton win now, even Trump himself - he will have an excuse for it.

So if Clinton wins by a landslide - something that rarely happens in these elections - then that will be clear evidence of some kind of stitch up. If she wins by a narrow margin - then that will be a clear sign of a stitch up. Nothing Trump ever does or says is his fault, it is always someone else who has failed or done something wrong. He cannot lose this election. Or at least that is what he has in his increasingly deluded head. He only hears the people who agree with him and edits out the millions of people around the country who have been appalled by him or who are laughing at him.

Because what is happening, if you live in the real world, is that America is now giving the election its full concentration. And what they see of Trump appals and disgusts them. Thus the polls are indicating that the outcome may well be something that hasn't been achieved since Ronald Reagan, a clear landslide victory for a woman many either dislike or actively hate. This is all the excuse that Trump needs to question the result. How can it be? How can it be that this reviled woman can beat me so clearly he will shout loudly. It will never occur to him that the American people have looked at the two of them, seen this bragging, brainless, lazy, shallow, preening ignoramus and made the only sane choice.

And so he is now talking in the language of YouTube conspiracy theorists, of the sort of people who claim that 9/11 was a vast conspiracy, of the sort of people who claim that man never walked on the moon. It is nonsense. And it is dangerous nonsense.

In a sane world I, as a Conservative, would be backing the Republican candidate. But the GOP has ceased to be a party that exists in that world. The candidates it has fielded in recent years have been at best hopeless. This latest is a calamity. And it is no use their blaming the primaries system. Trump is a consequence of years of Republican pandering to the kind of mindset that Trump, entirely mendaciously, claims to represent. Instead of having the courage to stand up to this, they have stayed quiet, they have done their deals. Then they wonder why their party has been seized by this Palin hick tendency, this brainless, isolationist, America first, guns are great, 1950s revivalist section of their party.

Trump, more out of his own narcissism than any coherent attempt to disavow the actual result, is going to tacitly encourage the halfwits who support him, possibly all the way to violence. He will do so based on a lie. He is losing this election, an election he ought to have been able to win easily. He is losing it not because of some vast conspiracy but because people can see he is unfit to be president. The polling is telling the story. Like all polling it often confuses, but there is a clear direction of travel. And Clinton is raising far more in donations too. Trump's campaign had $16 million in the bank as of 19th October. Clinton's campaign had more than 3 times that amount $62 million. Is that a conspiracy, or is it people voting with their wallets and credit cards?

The Democrats ought to have been losing this election at a canter. It's not just that Clinton is a bad candidate who ought to have been kept away from the nomination, it's that Obama has been at best an average president with a foreign policy barely worthy of the name. Instead they are set to win 3 presidential elections in succession and this one by such a majority it may well do lasting damage to American democracy. The GOP has fielded a candidate who is racist, bigoted and who sides with his country's enemies. He may well be preparing to question one of the fundamental tenets of democracy - the peaceful transition of government. It is something we all take for granted, it happened here in the UK just this summer. But it is something to be proud of and to defend to our dying breath. Trump may be about to end that.

So whatever the result we are still in a dangerous phase. Russia is watching and possibly waiting. The markets may well take a crash whatever the outcome. Trump is going to be humiliated. Trump will not like that. His reaction will be telling. It may also be disastrous for us all, albeit not quite as disastrous as his winning would have been.

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