Tuesday, 8 November 2016
American Election Prediction: A Clinton Win and By A Wider Margin Than Expected.
As I write this, we're about 4 hours out from the first projections of the US TV networks of what has happened in this most tense and divisive of elections.
For what it's worth, here is my prediction. And I am predicting, along with more or less everyone else now it seems, a win for Hillary Clinton.
This, though hardly a bold prediction, is based on the last opinion polls, which are generally more reliable than British ones, and on the high turnout. It seems that Donald Trump has at least succeeded in making a jaded country care about this election, want to watch it, and then to vote in it. It also seems as though he has galvanised both his own supporters and many millions of people who have been appalled and disgusted by him. So though it has been an election that has often disgusted and appalled, it will also show that democracy can still hold at bay lowest common denominator demagogues.
With this in mind then, I am predicting here that this is not going to be as close as we thought it might have been. That high turnout is suggestive of a big operation to keep Trump out, however unenthusiastic many will have felt about Clinton. In that sense the gyrations of the FBI this last week may well have done Clinton a favour. Prior to the intervention of James Comey, Clinton was out in front and cruising to victory. After that announcement she had to fight for her life. That will have alarmed enough people to get out and vote. His last minute reverse ferret then freed up more people to vote for her with clear consciences.
Clinton then will be a clear and decisive winner. There will be no issue of legal challenges and hanging chads. Whether it will be enough to stop Trump acting as the sore loser and going into denial is open to doubt. But then that would have been the case however decisive the result. There will be wild talk about anger and recrimination and possibly even of violence. If the result is decisive enough though to humiliate Trump then that should put paid to that.
My prediction then in the electoral college vote: Clinton: 323; Trump: 215
I'm also predicting that the GOP will hold the House with a reduced majority. The Senate is a lot easier to predict as it is only 34 of 100 seats being contested. The Democrats will regain control, by 51 to 49.