Friday, 2 June 2017

Trump is Right About Paris

There is predictable outrage in the liberal media and conservative media who ought to know better and from the virtue signallers of various political parties about Trump's decision to pull the US out of the Paris Treaty on climate change. Yet for once Trump has got it right. Paris was and is a ridiculous agreement that will achieve little other than putting up the costs of energy for those who can least afford it and allow politicians to preen themselves at little cost to themselves. Most of the action was long delayed to ten or fifteen years from now and was an attempt to hand yet more powers on to supra-national bodies on which self important politicians get to lord it over the rest of us without bothering to get elected first.

The agreement is supposed to be part of a global effort to keep temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius. Yet this is a nonsensical claim. The treaty, fantastically expensive as it would be if fully implemented (which it was never going to be except by idiots like the UK even before Trump's decision) would have no measurable impact on the climate even if it as sensitive to CO2 emissions as is claimed by alarmists. By their own figures, even if everyone cut by the amounts promised, which of course they would never do, it would lead to a reduction of 0.048 of a degree by 2100. And this is even if we accept their assertions about the state of the science and the accuracy of their models. Yet even this negligible amount of reduction would require developed countries like the US and indeed we here in the UK to reduce our emissions by about 80%. That is either fantastically, ruinously expensive or simply undoable. Either way it is a nonsense.

What they also don't tell you is that it would require countries like the UK handing over yet more money in the form of aid. Yet we are one of the few countries that actually hands over in aid what we have promised to do and what everyone has agreed to hand over. What chance that others, after tut tutting at Trump's decision and lecturing him about his ignorance, actually do what they have promised to do? Fat chance.

The problem is that, for all of the hype, global warming really isn't that much of a problem. A warmer planet has had no real consequences other than good ones. The planet is greener and we are growing more food. Warmer weather is much better and less deadly than colder weather. The other problem is that, despite all of the talk about how renewable energy is coming on in leaps and bounds, well it isn't. Green energy remains in its infancy, is spectacularly inefficient, expensive and in need of subsidy and simply cannot keep the lights on without being supplemented by fossil fuels. Renewables like solar and wind power are providing less than 1% of all global energy needs and cannot be expected to do any better for the foreseeable future. There may well come a time in the next 20 to 30 years when technology improves and we can wean ourselves off fossil fuels. We are not there yet. And so the political promises of cutting back on our emissions are absurd. And anyway, if the green meanies are so keen on cutting back on our CO2 emissions how come they are opposed to shale gas? Labour would ban it meaning our energy costs would remain sky high punishing the poor once again on the altar of middle class obsessions.

Listen to the commentary across most of the media and you would imagine that some disaster has befallen the planet. Yet Paris was just a treaty designed as propaganda and to allow politicians to grandstand. It would be nice if journalists who are so quick to question political assertions on economics and other areas of policy were to ask some about the politics of global warming too. The evidence is simply not there to suggest that Paris would have made any difference whatsoever. Instead of bleating about Trump's entirely reasonable and sensible decision we should follow suit.

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