Thursday, 8 June 2017
Video Diary Special: The Election Prediction Edition
So, just for the record and 10 hours before the polls close, here is my prediction for the election. The Tories are going to win with a good, but not a landslide majority. It will be between 80 and 100 seat majority. Plenty to govern with for 5 years, plenty to push through Brexit and other key legislation.
Labour will not do anything like as well as some of the polls have suggested. At best they will match or slightly better their 2015 vote share. They could do a lot worse. Their whole campaign has been about shoring up their core vote. It has not been about winning the election. Chauncey plans to cling on to the leadership and will point to his vote share as justification for this. Bear that in mind Labour voters. He will use your votes to hold on. Only a really disastrous result will force him out, and even then he may not succumb to normal rules. He has not had a good campaign. He has been appalling. It's just that he has not been quite as appalling as people, including me, thought he would be. It's hardly a ringing endorsement though is it.